SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Witzke, Heinz Peter; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; Golub, Alla A.; Havlik, Petr; Msangi, Siwa; Tokgoz, Simla; Searchinger, Timothy D..

A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to High Agricultural Commodity Prices

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91430

Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C..

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/09.

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets

Palavras-chave: Trade policy; Agricultural markets; Commodity prices; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51805

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED DOHA ROUND MODALITIES

Palavras-chave: Agricultural markets; Energy; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18453

Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Full, Frank.

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18659

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price while the other is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax...

CAN EU ENLARGEMENT LEAD TO "IMMISERIZING GROWTH"? AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48597

Tokgoz, Simla.

The possibility of 'immiserizing growth' in the grain sectors of the acceding countries after the EU enlargement is explored. The impact of the enlargement on the EU, new member states, and world grains markets are projected with different technology transfer scenarios, and the net welfare changes in each scenario are computed.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20100

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Beghin, John C..

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/04/08.

Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Corn acreage; Crop prices; Ethanol production; Food prices; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10009

Dodder, Rebecca S.; Amani, Elobeid; Johnson, Timothy L.; Kaplan, P. Ozge; Kurkalova, Lyubov A.; Secchi, Silvia; Tokgoz, Simla.

The tighter linkages between energy and crop markets due to recent climate and energy legislation in the US have large potential environmental impacts beyond carbon sequestration and climate mitigation. These range from effects on water quality and quantity, soil erosion, habitat and biodiversity preservation. These impacts are very location and management-decision specific, as they are the product of atomistic decisions and depend on soil and landscape specific variables. In order to fully understand the effects of biomass markets, the new and stronger linkages and feedback effects between national- and global-scale energy and commodity markets must be properly understood and identified using an integrated perspective. We discuss the various interactions...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Energy and Commodity markets linkages; Integrated energy system assessment; Environmental impacts; Biofuels.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118453

EU Enlargement and Technology Transfer to New Member States

Tokgoz, Simla.

The European Union (EU) accomplished its biggest enlargement process in 2004 in terms of the number of countries, area, and population. This study focuses on the impact of enlargement, the resulting technology transfer on the grain sectors of the New Member States (NMS), and the consequent welfare implications. The study finds that EU enlargement has important implications for the EU and the NMS, but its impact on the world grain markets is minimal. The results show that producers in the NMS gain from accession because of higher prices, whereas consumers in most NMS face a welfare loss. Incorporating technology transfer into the accession increases the welfare gain of producers despite falling prices because of the larger supply shift. The loss of welfare...

Evaluating the Production and Price Impacts of Biotechnology Application in Crop Markets

Palavras-chave: EU enlargement; Technology transfer; Welfare; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18591

Brookes, Graham; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Biotechnology crop traits have been applied on a widespread commercial global basis since 1996, making it the most rapidly adopted crop technology in agriculture. The primary biotechnologies used have included technology delivering herbicide tolerance and insect resistance for crops, such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. This technology has provided farmers with productivity improvements through a combination of yield improvements and cost reductions. Thus, this technology has had an impact on prices of cereals and oilseeds (and their derivatives) both in countries where biotech traits were applied and in the global market. Realizing the surging significance of biotechnology application in global crop markets, this study first summarizes the...

FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Palavras-chave: Biotech crops; Prices; Yield; Soybeans; Corn; Canola; Partial-equilibrium model; Price effects; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61164

Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.

The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7319

FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7296

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China,...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48598

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for...

Long-Term and Global Tradeoffs between Bio-Energy, Feed, and Food

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q17; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6183

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Beghin, John C..

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases....

Mitigating Land Use Changes From Biofuel Expansion: An Assessment of Biofuel Feedstock Yield Potential in APEC Economies

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Corn acreage; Crop prices; Ethanol production; Food prices; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9811

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

The emerging biofuel sector has drawn great interest as an alternative source of fuel for transportation. The expansion of biofuels greatly impacts world agricultural markets, since currently, the primary feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production are field crops and their derived products. There is great interest in the potential of countries to expand their biofuel sectors through increased production of feedstocks. The long-term potential for developing first-generation biofuels in many countries depends on a large and constant supply of feedstocks. This may be achieved in two ways: land extensification and/or land intensification. However, expansion of land area comes with a number of environmental challenges highlighted by the recent debate on...